Owen by Ownify · Lake Street & Richmond District buyer intelligence
24 19th Avenue just listed at $6,488,000. Here's what it takes to win, and why this one is different.
If you're trying to buy a home in the Richmond District or on Lake Street, you've learned the reflex: 91% of the last year's verified sales closed over ask, the median at 127% of it. But Owen's three valuation routes land on one number for this house, and it is not the sticker. Applying the neighborhood's bid-over reflex to this listing could be a million-dollar mistake, and bidding it right starts with knowing which side of the ask the real value sits on. This page shares the market data free; the full report prices this exact home and gives you the bid ladder, the calendar, and the terms that win.
- 8,260 SF transactions modeled
- 3,685 verified original asking prices
- 635 auctions behind the win curve
Free data · How homes sell in the Richmond & on Lake Street
The Richmond sells fast and over the ask, when the ask is bait
Every number below comes from house sales where the original asking price was verified from listing history, not a vendor field. This is the market 24 19th Avenue just entered at $6,488,000.
127%
median sale vs. original ask, last 12 months of verified house sales
91%
of the last year's sales closed over the asking price
~15 days
median time to resolution; 98% of sales that catch resolve within 30
$1,294
median price per square foot, area houses, 2026 year-to-date
+9%/yr
per-square-foot appreciation, and the over-ask gap is widening on top of it
42%
of purchases are two-income households, and VC/PE buyers run 3.7x their citywide share here
The two regimes every buyer must recognize: sharp, below-value asks are auction bait. 73 Almaden Court asked $2.495M and closed at $4.15M, 66% over, in fourteen days. Full-value asks are the opposite: 3 Presidio Terrace asked $9.5M and closed at exactly $9.5M, and some close under. Which regime 24 19th Avenue launched in changes everything about how you should bid. The full report settles it with three independent valuations, and tells you what the right first move is in that regime.
Free tool · Offer simulator
How strong is your offer on 24 19th Ave?
Drag to your intended bid. The simulator runs Owen's buyer-side win model (fitted on 635 resolved San Francisco auctions and run at this home's live $6,488,000 ask) and shows your competitive band. The exact percentages, the fair-value verdict, and the bid that wins 3 times out of 4 are in the full report.
Your bid
$6,600,000
🔒 Exact win probability at this bid: · Bid that wins 75% of the time: $7,2■■,000 Unlock →
In the full report
The six answers that win this house, or save you from it
The fair-value verdict
Three independent valuation routes (a renovation-aware AVM consensus, the renovated Lake-corridor comps' own $/sq ft on the true square footage, and an independent cross-check) converge on one number, and the report shows exactly where the $6,488,000 ask sits against it, with a condition-tier table from unrenovated to trophy.
The bid ladder
Five bid levels from Probe to Dominant, each with its exact modeled win probability, the median winning bid if an auction forms, and the one rung that captures the scenario where no auction forms at all, so you buy win probability where it's cheap, not where it's emotional.
The walk-away ceiling
The two-ceiling rule that separates paying for the house from paying for the auction: one ceiling on the listing presentation, a higher one only if your walk-through confirms the trophy tier, with the dollar test for each.
Offer terms that win
The five terms that decide stacked offers here: the appraisal structure this specific home's unusual paperwork demands, financing proof that actually moves a listing agent, the escalation-clause trap, and the timeline gift that costs you nothing.
The listing agent's playbook
Owen's database holds this listing agent's recorded sales history: how they price against value, what their launches actually close at, how fast their homes move, and whether this $6,488,000 ask fits their own pattern or breaks from it. Read their record before they read your offer.
The two-week calendar & the day-31 playbook
What to do on day 1, by day 7, and in the offer window, plus the re-engagement move if the listing goes quiet, which on an ask like this one is a live scenario the patient buyer gets paid for.
The full report · PDF, emailed instantly
Owen Buyer Intelligence Report: 24 19th Avenue
- All the free data on this page, sourced and in context
- What 24 19th Ave is actually worth: three independent methods, one number, and where the $6,488,000 ask sits against it
- The full bid ladder with exact win probabilities, including the rung that wins when no auction forms
- The buyer's two-week calendar, and the day-31 playbook if the listing lingers
- The five offer terms that beat higher bids, including the appraisal strategy this home's unusual paperwork demands
- Who you're bidding against: financing, industries, and the competing homes they can buy instead
- The listing agent's recorded pricing playbook, and whether this ask fits it or breaks from it
- Honest limits: what could make the analysis wrong, and your protection for each
One home · One report
$49
12 pages · PDF · emailed to you within a minute of checkout · built on the same Owen engine that prices homes for Ownify's own purchases
Secure checkout · instant email delivery · not an appraisal and not agent, legal, or financial advice
Who's behind this
Team Ownify builds pricing systems. Owen, Ownify's San Francisco pricing engine, is built on 8,260 SF transactions, 3,685 verified original asking prices recovered from listing history, and a buyer-side win model fitted on 635 resolved auctions and validated out of sample within about one percentage point at every bid level. Ownify itself is the fractional homeownership program that puts first-time buyers in homes with 2% down. Owen models both sides of this market, and this report points it at yours.
Buyer FAQ · Richmond District & Lake Street
How to buy a home in the Richmond District: quick answers
How much over asking do homes in the Richmond District sell for?
Across 161 verified-ask house sales since late 2023, the median close was 114% of the original ask. In the last twelve months it accelerated to a median of 127%, with 91% of sales closing over asking.
How fast do Richmond District homes go pending?
The median is about 15 days; a quarter resolve within 8 days and 98% of sales that catch resolve within 30. Listings that miss that window usually go quiet or reprice, which is itself a signal the full report teaches you to use.
Is $6,488,000 a fair price for 24 19th Ave?
That is exactly the question the report answers. Owen prices the home by three independent methods and shows where the ask sits against the result, because on this listing, the neighborhood's usual bid-over-ask reflex may be the wrong move entirely, in either direction.
Should I waive the appraisal contingency in San Francisco?
Never blind. On this home specifically, the public record and the listing describe the house differently. The report explains the appraisal structure that protects you while keeping your offer competitive, and why on this listing the appraisal may be a card to hold rather than a risk to waive.
Is this the same data sellers use?
Yes. Owen models both sides of the market, and that's the point: the seller's side of the table already prices this way. The report gives you the same curves, read from the buyer's seat.
Owen by Ownify · ownify.com · Estimates from data; not an appraisal and not agent, legal, or financial advice. Sale-vs-ask statistics computed only on sales with original asking prices verified from listing history. Buyer-composition figures are aggregates; no buyer or employer is identified. 24 19th Avenue data as of October 1, 2026. © 2026 Ownify, Inc.